zoiaorg

by Roberto Zoia

decision-making

Problem Solving Skills for the Future

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Learning complex thinking is uncomfortable. Complexity is, after all, the realm of unknown unknowns.

The Cynefin Framework is a conceptual framework created in 1999 by Mary E. Boone and Dave J. Snowden while working for IBM Global Services. It classifies the issues leaders face into five contexts, defined by the nature of the relationship between cause and effect. It offers decision-makers a “sense of place” from which to view their perceptions, and make better decisions.

Obvious or simple is the domain of best practice, or known knowns. Problems in this realm can be solved by applying rules or best practices. There is rarely disagreement or doubt about what needs to be done.

Complicated is the domain of experts, the realm of the known unknowns. Relating cause and effect requires expertise and analysis, but once the problem has been analyzed, the course of action is clear: apply the appropriate good operating practice.

Complex, on the other hand, is the context of the unknown unknowns, where the relation between cause and effect is known only in retrospective. “Complexity is more a way of thinking about the world than a new way of working with mathematical models1.” Complex systems are dynamic. They involve large numbers of interacting elements. Interactions are non-linear. The whole is greater than the sum of its parts.

Political entities, organizations, markets, the rainforest… are examples of complex realities.

Solutions to complex problems can’t be imposed. There is no ‘right solution’. Deciding on the criteria to be used to evaluate possible solutions is part of solving problems in this realm.

Most situations and decisions in organizations are complex because some major change—a bad quarter, a shift in management, a merger or acquisition—introduces unpredictability and flux. In this domain, we can understand why things happen only in retrospect2.

Finally, a problem is chaotic when it’s too confusing to wait for a knowledge-based response. Because cause and effect are unclear, we need to establish certain level of order first, sense where stability lies, and try to turn what’s chaotic into the realm of complexity.

Guess what kind of problem solving skills will give you an unfair advantage and won’t get you replaced by a robot, automation, or a clever machine learning algorithm anytime soon. “Work is moving yet again. The move from Simple to Complicated that was a hallmark of the twentieth century is being outpaced by a move from Complicated to Complex and Chaotic3.”

To learn to navigate the sea of complexity, you need a sense of curiosity and the habit to notice the nature of things around you. You need to nurture the ability to learn new things. Expose yourself to complex situations, where identifying the problems is part of the challenge, leaving behind the shallow and safe waters of what’s just complicated and tactical.

Photo by Samuel Zeller on Unsplash

  1. cfr HBR, November 2007. A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making. SNOWDEN, David J. and BOONE, Mary E. ↩
  2. cfr HBR, November 2007, idem. ↩
  3. Taylor Pearson, The Commoditization of Credentialism: Why MBAs and JDs Can’t Get Jobs. ↩

Why being objective is hard and how it affects your decision-making

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People whose work involve managing other people, evaluating their work, or somehow passing judgment about other people, know that soft skills, attributes, and people’s behaviors in general are hard to gauge objectively.

Being objective is hard. While we have some experience managing the tension between emotional and rational arguments –we are rarely detached from the situation at hand– more often than we think we judge and make decisions based on our intuitions and affected by our biases1. We like to believe that we are always rational, but we really should know better. Most often than not, we unconsciously backwards-rationalize our not-so-rational decisions2.

For example, consider a concept like executive presence. Jenna Goudreau writes in Forbes that, according to a 2012 study by the Center for Talent Innovation, feedback on executive presence is often contradictory and confusing. However, the same study finds that executive presence counts for 26% of what it takes to be promoted. Executive presence certainly can be a factor for a promotion, but only if we understand what it entails as an evaluation criteria.

Another example is when we let our perception of someone or a situation get affected by circumstantial comments or facts. It takes consistent results and effort over a long period of time for an employee to gain his or her bosses’ trust3. Making echo of some anecdotal negative incident about that employee can unjustly hinder or destroy his or her reputation in no time.

What can we do? One solution is to acquire habits that help us step over our biases and separate perceptions from concrete and factual information; distinguish anecdotal gossip from consistent behaviors… to the point that it becomes second nature to us, an almost unconscious way of thinking and reasoning. That is, it becomes part of your identity.

Acquiring this kind of habits can be hard. But it can be done. Four things you can try:

Always be specific when expressing your opinion about other people or situations

Nobody is a complete mess or totally a star. Be clear and concise when presenting the information. Be polite, but firm when refuting. Listen, and recognize when you are wrong.

For example, if a colleague says about someone that he always arrives late, you could ask how many times in the last three months? to verify if it is a fact or just a perception. To an opinion that someone cannot be considered for a position because she lacks executive presence, you could ask what would be the three most important things that person would need to work on in order to be ready for promotion in the next six months.

Make no negative comments about anyone

If you need to refer to anything negative, refer to the facts and not the person. And do it as you would if the person responsible was sitting in front of you.

Ask a colleague to help you by pointing out each time you fail4 at this.

Learn to be discrete when talking about other people

There is a quote by an author from the 6th century AC that comes to mind5:

Be the one who presides discrete in silence, and [useful] when speaking, so that he does not speak when he should not, nor remain quiet when he should speak. Because as careless speaking can lead others to error, not speaking up can leave others in error.”

Do your homework before passing judgement

This is very relevant if you are going to say something important that will affect other people.

For example, if you work for a company that has annual performance reviews, and have a team to evaluate, do your work throughout the year, not just the week before the evaluation meeting. Have a mental framework for the evaluation. Ask other’s for feedback about your reports, specially those who are likely to attend the meeting6.

  1. Biases –cognitive biases– are tendencies to think in certain ways that can lead to systematic deviations from a standard of rationality or good judgment. See, for example, Wikipedia, List of Cognitive biases. ↩
  2. cfr Taylor Pearson, Identity Based Decision Making: How Your Identity Makes You Wealthy. ↩
  3. cfr Stephen M.R. Covey, The SPEED of Trust: The One Thing that Changes Everything. ↩
  4. Optional: make the compromise to donate a fixed amount of money to a worthy cause each time you fail. ↩
  5. Translated from the text in Spanish: “Sea el que preside discreto en el silencio y útil cuando hable, de modo que ni diga lo que se debe callar, ni calle lo que se debe decir; porque así como el hablar imprudente conduce al error, así también el silencio indiscreto deja en el error a los que podrían ser instruidos” (San Gregorio Magno, Regula Pastoralis, II, 4) ↩
  6. Ask for general feedback and you will find yourself with vague answers. Some people tend to remember anecdotical examples from the last weeks. So, ask for feedback about specific points. ↩

Understanding other people’s point of view

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People said to have ‘leadership skills’ are usually good at listening, and at considering things from points of view different than their own. They try to put themselves in the other person’s shoes before delivering judgment, and ask for advise when they think it’s relevant.

As St. Thomas Aquinas said centuries ago, Truth is the intellect’s conformity with reality1. The reality of a situation, being objectively the same, is differently perceived by different people when judging it. Reality is complex, you don’t necessarily have all the information necessary to understand all of its aspects, or you may lack the hability to make use of the available information.

Listening to others and considering things from different points of view are proven means to gain better understanding of a situation, and make better decisions.

Seth Godin, in A legend in my own mind{: target=‘_blank’ }:

Everyone lives with self mythology.

The more important a memory is to the story we tell ourselves about ourselves, the more often we rehearse the memory. And the more often we relive those memories, the less likely it is that they are true.

Despite our shared conception that we are rational actors making intelligent decisions based on an accurate view of the world and ourselves, precisely the opposite is true. Your customers, your workers, you and I, we are all figments2 of our imaginations.

Understanding the mythology of your partner, your customer and your audience is far more important than watching the instant replay of what actually happened.

  1. cfr De Veritate q.1, a.1&3{: target=‘_blank’ }. ↩
  2. figment: a thing that someone believes to be real but that exists only in their imagination. ↩